- YouGov polls show a straight-line decline in support among British for leaving the EU in 2019.
- Support for a second referendum on the terms of the deal is rising.
- A NatCen “poll of polls” puts Remain at 52% vs Leave at 48%.
- The government must get its Brexit deal approved in parliament by January 21, 2019.
- If it cannot get that vote, May’s government could topple.
- Then, chaos ensues.
LONDON — This chart says it all: The closer we get to the Brexit deadline in March 2019, the more British people tell pollsters they think their decision to leave the European Union was wrong.
The data for the chart is based on YouGov polling, and each bar represents the average of polls taken within that month. The results show an almost straight line decline in support for Brexit since 2016.
Separately, the National Centre for Social Research published a “poll of polls” summarising results of its last six surveys, and it also found a majority favouring Remain, 52% to 48%. The NatCen poll was headed by veteran polling expert John Curtice, who says, “even if a second referendum does not take place, it might be thought important to ask whether or not, as the Brexit process comes to a conclusion, there is still a majority in favour of leaving the EU. After all, the answer to that question might be thought central to any evaluation of the success or otherwise of the EU referendum as a way of deciding what Britain’s relationship with the EU should be.”
The shift away from Leave toward Remain has occurred because of a slight weakening among Leave supporters who regret their vote, and from people who failed to vote in the 2016 referendum breaking largely in favour of Remain, Curtice believes.
The country is evenly split on a second referendum
At the same time, support for a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal is rising.
YouGov poll on whether there should be a second referendum on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU
- There should be a second referendum: 40%
- There should not be a second referendum: 41%
- Source data.
The data was collated by Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs, who believes it represents the reality that is pushing Theresa May toward a soft Brexit, regardless of her tough rhetoric and her statement in August that a no-deal Brexit “wouldn’t be the end of the world.”
Tombs’ theory is that May’s current position — insisting on a deal she formulated at Chequers that the EU has already rejected — will forestall a rebellion of hard-Brexit MPs in her own party who have the power to bring her down. Eventually, Tombs believes, May will be forced to accept a soft Brexit keeping the UK close to the EU. It is the only type of deal she can get through parliament, which has a pro-Remain majority of MPs.
January 21, 2019 is the real deadline for Brexit
The alternative would be for May to present a hard-Brexit deal to the House of Commons, where it would be voted down, a scenario that could trigger a coup against her from her own party, a general election, or maybe even a second referendum. The Conservatives know they might lose either of those votes. As these charts show, the country becomes less enthusiastic about Brexit as time goes by.
Ironically, they cannot risk moving against her and she cannot risk moving toward them.
That all changes on January 21, 2019, according to the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018. If May has not persuaded the House to adopt a deal with the EU by that date, the act requires the prime minister to make a statement informing parliament of what the government intends to do.
Drama will ensue, Tombs told clients in a note he sent them on September 24:
“If by January 21 the government has not obtained a deal, it must set out its next steps to parliament. While MPs’ debate and vote will be held in non-binding ‘neutral terms’, it will catalyse opposition. The vast majority of MPs do not want a cliff-edge departure, so the government likely would suffer a no-confidence vote or would find it impossible to stop a private members’ bill legislating for a second referendum.”
Public officers above 58 years and with pre-existing conditions told to work from home: The Standard
In a document from Head of Public Service, Joseph Kinyua new measure have been outlined to curb the bulging spread of covid-19. Public officers with underlying health conditions and those who are over 58 years -a group that experts have classified as most vulnerable to the virus will be required to execute their duties from home.
“All State and public officers with pre-existing medical conditions and/or aged 58 years and above serving in CSG5 (job group ‘S’) and below or their equivalents should forthwith work from home,” read the document,” read the document.
To ensure that those working from home deliver, the Public Service directs that there be clear assignments and targets tasked for the period designated and a clear reporting line to monitor and review work done.
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Others measures outlined in the document include the provision of personal protective equipment to staff, provision of sanitizers and access to washing facilities fitted with soap and water, temperature checks for all staff and clients entering public offices regular fumigation of office premises and vehicles and minimizing of visitors except by prior appointments.
Officers who contract the virus and come back to work after quarantine or isolation period will be required to follow specific directives such as obtaining clearance from the isolation facility certified by the designated persons indicating that the public officer is free and safe from Covid-19. The officer will also be required to stay away from duty station for a period of seven days after the date of medical certification.
“The period a public officer spends in quarantine or isolation due to Covid-19, shall be treated as sick leave and shall be subject to the Provisions of the Human Resource Policy and procedures Manual for the Public Service(May,2016),” read the document.
The service has also made discrimination and stigmatization an offence and has guaranteed those affected with the virus to receive adequate access to mental health and psychosocial supported offered by the government.
The new directives targeting the Public Services come at a time when Kenyans have increasingly shown lack of strict observance of the issued guidelines even as the number of positive Covid-19 cases skyrocket to 13,771 and leaving 238 dead as of today.
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Principal Secretaries/ Accounting Officers will be personally responsible for effective enforcement and compliance of the current guidelines and any future directives issued to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.
Uhuru convenes summit to review rising Covid-19 cases: The Standard
The session will among other things review the efficacy of the containment measures in place and review the impact of the phased easing of the restrictions, State House said in a statement.
This story is being updated.
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Drastic life changes affecting mental health
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