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KAGWANJA: Drone-based count can enhance credibility of census

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By PETER KAGWANJA
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Again, Kenyans have a rendezvous with destiny in August this year. Kenya will hold its sixth Population and Housing Census since 1963 and eighth since 1945. This will be the first census undertaken in the new dispensation of a devolved system of governance.

Defined as “the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about the members of a given population”, censuses in Africa’s divided societies, like elections, are becoming moments of instability.

This undermines the credibility, integrity and usefulness of census results. According to the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) of Nigeria, Festus Odimegwu: “No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1863.”

Certainly, censuses are as old as the human civilisation. In Africa, the Greek historian, Herodotus, tells us that ancient Egyptian rulers (Pharaohs) required every Egyptian to declare their sources of income annually to the administration officials responsible for the provinces known as Nomarch.

But the world has come a long way since the time of the Roman Republic when the census was merely a list that kept track of all adult males fit for military service.

Population and housing census has become an exalted international practice taken at least every 10 years, with the United Nations defining its essential features as “individual enumeration, universality within a defined territory, simultaneity and defined periodicity”.

What has made census a big deal is that it is what a referendum is in electoral processes. It is not sampling where information is obtained only from only a subset of a population, but targets the whole population.

However, the worldwide trend to enumerate the ethnicity and race of people continues to draw controversy.

Despite this, with the exception of France, the other four veto-wielding members of the United Nations Security Council (America, Britian, Russia and China) have enumerated ethnicity or race during past censuses.

Kenya is one of the 19 African states where the ethnicity or race of people was enumerated in at least one census since 1991. From the first census in the 1940s all the way to the most recent in 2009, Kenya enumerated its people by ethnicity (the exception being the 1999 census where ethnicity figures were not made public).

However, with the government (both at the county and national levels) increasingly becoming a mechanism for distributing largese along identity lines, the data collected during each decennial census is at the heart of fierce contestation along ethnic lines as a strategy to access resources.

It is in the light of this that it was suggested that the ethnicity question should have been dropped in the 2009 census as part of the effort to promote national healing in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 post-election violence.

The ethnic question was included, nonetheless. “We have decided to be transparent,” said then Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya when releasing the results of the census a year later in 2010.

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In February 2012, Oparanya tabled revised post-census figures in Parliament showing that the figures of people in the eight sub-counties in Northern Kenya (Lagdera, Mandera East, Mandera Central, Mandera West, Wajir East, Turkana North, Turkana South and Turkana Central districts) were inflated in the 2009 population count.

The inflated figures read that the two regions of North Eastern and Turkana had 2.35 million people, which the Minister revised downward to 1.3 million people as the actual population size.

Speculation went viral that the results had been “doctored” because of some untypical growth in the number of certain communities.

The elite in the affected areas moved to the High Court arguing that the minister had no powers to alter the census results. Justice Mohamed Warsame, then a High Court Judge, ruled in their favour, barring the State from using the projected results to demarcate electoral boundaries.

However, four years later, in 2016, the Court of Appeal set aside the orders. But the controversy has lingered on, and now casts a long shadow over the 2019 census.

Ahead of the 2019 census, the debate on ethnic enumeration revolves around two arguments. One view, articulated by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), is that there is a danger some groups will use the results to obtain more resources.

The second view, linked to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, is that Kenyans need to be told how many they are in terms of tribes. Besides helping authorities to plan better, ethnic statistics are a reflection of Kenya’s cultural diversity and migration patterns.

Obviously, there is nothing political in ethnic statistics themselves. What is worrying is an obnoxious battle for “genetic supremacy” in which the fertility rate of ethnic groups is weaponised.

One politician went public arguing that Kenya’s pastoralist communities, especially the country’s ethnic Somali (whose fertility rate is the highest in the country at 6.4 pc), are genetically outpacing and overtaking “the big five ethnic majorities” such as the Kikuyu who have the lowest (2.8 pc) growth. This was interpreted as an attempt to prepare grounds to inflate figures of the 2019 census.

Technology holds the key to ensuring the quality, accuracy and dependability of the 2019 census data in the light of insecurity, terrorism and fear of inflation of ethnic numbers in remote parts of Kenya to controversial levels. “The use of technology enhances quality of the data”, said Mr Henry Rotich, Cabinet Secretary, The National Treasury and Planning, in a press briefing on January 23. The Government should consider using drone-based technology, now widely used to count wildlife more accurately and precisely than humans, to enhance the accuracy and credibility of the coming census.

Prof Kagwanja is a former Government Adviser and currently Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute.



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Sordid tale of the bank ‘that would bribe God’

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Bank of Credit and Commerce International. August 1991. [File, Standard]

“This bank would bribe God.” These words of a former employee of the disgraced Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) sum up one of the most rotten global financial institutions.
BCCI pitched itself as a top bank for the Third World, but its spectacular collapse would reveal a web of transnational corruption and a playground for dictators, drug lords and terrorists.
It was one of the largest banks cutting across 69 countries and its aftermath would cause despair to innocent depositors, including Kenyans.
BCCI, which had $20 billion (Sh2.1 trillion in today’s exchange rate) assets globally, was revealed to have lost more than its entire capital.
The bank was founded in 1972 by the crafty Pakistani banker Agha Hasan Abedi.
He was loved in his homeland for his charitable acts but would go on to break every rule known to God and man.
In 1991, the Bank of England (BoE) froze its assets, citing large-scale fraud running for several years. This would see the bank cease operations in multiple countries. The Luxembourg-based BCCI was 77 per cent owned by the Gulf Emirate of Abu Dhabi.  
BoE investigations had unearthed laundering of drugs money, terrorism financing and the bank boasted of having high-profile customers such as Panama’s former strongman Manual Noriega as customers.
The Standard, quoting “highly placed” sources reported that Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Zayed Sultan would act as guarantor to protect the savings of Kenyan depositors.
The bank had five branches countrywide and panic had gripped depositors on the state of their money.
Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) would then move to appoint a manager to oversee the operations of the BCCI operations in Kenya.
It sent statements assuring depositors that their money was safe.
The Standard reported that the Sheikh would be approaching the Kenyan and other regional subsidiaries of the bank to urge them to maintain operations and assure them of his personal support.
It was said that contact between CBK and Abu Dhabi was “likely.”
This came as the British Ambassador to the UAE Graham Burton implored the gulf state to help compensate Britons, and the Indian government also took similar steps.
The collapse of BCCI was, however, not expect to badly hit the Kenyan banking system. This was during the sleazy 1990s when Kenya’s banking system was badly tested. It was the era of high graft and “political banks,” where the institutions fraudulently lent to firms belonging or connected to politicians, who were sometimes also shareholders.
And even though the impact was expected to be minimal, it was projected that a significant number of depositors would transfer funds from Asian and Arab banks to other local institutions.
“Confidence in Arab banking has taken a serious knock,” the “highly placed” source told The Standard.
BCCI didn’t go down without a fight. It accused the British government of a conspiracy to bring down the Pakistani-run bank.  The Sheikh was said to be furious and would later engage in a protracted legal battle with the British.
“It looks to us like a Western plot to eliminate a successful Muslim-run Third World Bank. We know that it often acted unethically. But that is no excuse for putting it out of business, especially as the Sultan of Abu Dhabi had agreed to a restructuring plan,” said a spokesperson for British Asians.
A CBK statement signed by then-Deputy Governor Wanjohi Murithi said it was keenly monitoring affairs of the mother bank and would go to lengths to protect Kenyan depositors.
“In this respect, the CBK has sought and obtained the assurance of the branch’s management that the interests of depositors are not put at risk by the difficulties facing the parent company and that the bank will meet any withdrawal instructions by depositors in the normal course of business,” said Mr Murithi.
CBK added that it had maintained surveillance of the local branch and was satisfied with its solvency and liquidity.
This was meant to stop Kenyans from making panic withdrawals.
For instance, armed policemen would be deployed at the bank’s Nairobi branch on Koinange Street after the bank had announced it would shut its Kenyan operations.
In Britain, thousands of businesses owned by British Asians were on the verge of financial ruin following the closure of BCCI.
Their firms held almost half of the 120,000 bank accounts registered with BCCI in Britain. 
The African Development Bank was also not spared from this mess, with the bulk of its funds deposited and BCCI and stood to lose every coin.
Criminal culture
In Britain, local authorities from Scotland to the Channel Islands are said to have lost over £100 million (Sh15.2 billion in today’s exchange rate).
The biggest puzzle remained how BCCI was allowed by BoE and other monetary regulation authorities globally to reach such levels of fraudulence.
This was despite the bank being under tight watch owing to the conviction of some of its executives on narcotics laundering charges in the US.
Coast politician, the late Shariff Nassir, would claim that five primary schools in Mombasa lost nearly Sh1 million and appealed to then Education Minister George Saitoti to help recover the savings. Then BoE Governor Robin Leigh-Pemberton condemned it as so deeply immersed in fraud that rescue or recovery – at least in Britain – was out of the question.
“The culture of the bank is criminal,” he said. The bank was revealed to have targeted the Third World and had created several “institutional devices” to promote its operations in developing countries.
These included the Third World Foundation for Social and Economic Studies, a British-registered charity.
“It allowed it to cultivate high-level contacts among international statesmen,” reported The Observer, a British newspaper.
BCCI also arranged an annual Third World lecture and a Third World prize endowment fund of about $10 million (Sh1 billion in today’s exchange rate).
Winners of the annual prize had included Nelson Mandela (1985), sir Bob Geldof (1986) and Archbishop Desmond Tutu (1989).
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Monitor water pumps remotely via your phone

Tracking and monitoring motor vehicles is not new to Kenyans. Competition to install affordable tracking devices is fierce but essential for fleet managers who receive reports online and track vehicles from the comfort of their desk.

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Agricultural Development Corporation Chief Accountant Gerald Karuga on the Spot Over Fraud –

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Gerald Karuga, the acting chief accountant at the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC), is on the spot over fraud in land dealings.

ADC was established in 1965 through an Act of Parliament Cap 346 to facilitate the land transfer programme from European settlers to locals after Kenya gained independence.

Karuga is under fire for allegedly aiding a former powerful permanent secretary in the KANU era Benjamin Kipkulei to deprive ADC beneficiaries of their land in Naivasha.

Kahawa Tungu understands that the aggrieved parties continue to protest the injustice and are now asking the Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission (EACC) and the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) to probe Karuga.

A source who spoke to Weekly Citizen publication revealed that Managing Director Mohammed Dulle is also involved in the mess at ADC.

Read: Ministry of Agriculture Apologizes After Sending Out Tweets Portraying the President in bad light

Dulle is accused of sidelining a section of staffers in the parastatal.

The sources at ADC intimated that Karuga has been placed strategically at ADC to safeguard interests of many people who acquired the corporations’ land as “donations” from former President Daniel Arap Moi.

Despite working at ADC for many years Karuga has never been transferred, a trend that has raised eyebrows.

“Karuga has worked here for more than 30 years and unlike other senior officers in other parastatals who are transferred after promotion or moved to different ministries, for him, he has stuck here for all these years and we highly suspect that he is aiding people who were dished out with big chunks of land belonging to the corporation in different parts of the country,” said the source.

In the case of Karuga safeguarding Kipkulei’s interests, workers at the parastatals and the victims who claim to have lost their land in Naivasha revealed that during the Moi regime some senior officials used dubious means to register people as beneficiaries of land without their knowledge and later on colluded with rogue land officials at the Ministry of Lands to acquire title deeds in their names instead of those of the benefactors.

Read Also: Galana Kulalu Irrigation Scheme To Undergo Viability Test Before Being Privatised

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“We have information that Karuga has benefitted much from Kipkulei through helping him and this can be proved by the fact that since the matter of the Naivasha land began, he has been seen changing and buying high-end vehicles that many people of his rank in government can’t afford to buy or maintain,” the source added.

“He is even building a big apartment for rent in Ruiru town.”

The wealthy officer is valued at over Sh1.5 billion in prime properties and real estate.

Last month, more than 100 squatters caused scenes in Naivasha after raiding a private firm owned by Kipkulei.

The squatters, who claimed to have lived on the land for more than 40 years, were protesting take over of the land by a private developer who had allegedly bought the land from the former PS.

They pulled down a three-kilometre fence that the private developed had erected.

The squatters claimed that the former PS had not informed them that he had sold the land and that the developer was spraying harmful chemicals on the grass affecting their livestock and homes built on a section of the land.

Read Also: DP Ruto Wants NCPB And Other Agricultural Bodies Merged For Efficiency

Naivasha Deputy County Commissioner Kisilu Mutua later issued a statement warning the squatters against encroaching on Kipkuleir’s land.

“They are illegally invading private land. We shall not allow the rule of the jungle to take root,” warned Mutua.

Meanwhile, a parliamentary committee recently demanded to know identities of 10 faceless people who grabbed 30,350 acres of land belonging to the parastatal, exposing the rot at the corporation.

ADC Chairman Nick Salat, who doubles up as the KANU party Secretary-General, denied knowledge of the individuals and has asked DCI to probe the matter.

Email your news TIPS to [email protected] or WhatsApp +254708677607. You can also find us on Telegram through www.t.me/kahawatungu

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William Ruto eyes Raila Odinga Nyanza backyard

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Deputy President William Ruto will next month take his ‘hustler nation’ campaigns to his main rival, ODM leader Raila Odinga’s Nyanza backyard, in an escalation of the 2022 General Election competition.

Acrimonious fall-out

Development agenda

Won’t bear fruit

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