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Here’s why the IMF’s Argentina bailout is making people nervous – Finance – Pulselive.co.ke

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  • The IMF boosted its credit line to Argentina this week, to $57.1 billion, the largest in its history.
  • A larger credit line will be delivered at a faster pace, so long as the central bank follows new requirements.
  • Some economists worry the bailout plan could cause stagnation and political risks.

In an effort to stem a crisis has roiled Latin America’s third-largest economy, the International Monetary Fund this week said it would increase Argentina’s credit line to $57.1 billion. But boosting what was already the largest bailout in its history doesn’t come without risks, experts say.

“While the IMF’s decision to make more credit available to the country over the next three years has reduced sovereign default risks over this period, things could still turn sour beyond that,” Edward Glossop, a Latin America economist at Capital Economics, said. “Argentina has had 22 IMF deals since 1958, and none have restored macroeconomic stability on a sustained basis.”

What are the changes?

  • A $7.1 billion credit-line increase
  • Payments will be delivered at a faster pace
  • A zero-deficit target for 2019
  • Restrictions on when the central bank can intervene
  • Disbursements are no longer precautionary (Argentina will receive funding so long as it meets the conditional ity of the agreement)

Stagnation risks

New monetary-policy stipulations would minimize volatility, analysts said, but could pose risks to economic activity. Under the new agreement, Argentina’s central bank would only be allowed to intervene under extreme circumstances. A “non-intervention zone” would be set between 34 and 44 pesos per dollar beginning in October.

“We think the main risk of this policy is to generate additional stagnation in economic activity, particularly well into 2019, when we expect some recovery signs to start showing,” analysts at HSBC said. That could be especially true if inflation, which is expected to surpass 40% this year, remains well above target.

Meanwhile, economists are predicting the country will fall into a recession by the end of 2018 as the government scrambles to reduce its debt. Gross domestic product fell sharply between April and June, marking the first economic contraction in more than a year, and is expected to continue to slide in coming quarters amid steep spending cuts and export tax increases.

A complicated past

Argentina has had a complicated relationship with the IMF, which has been blamed for worsening the country’s economic crisis in 2001. Three years after intervention, which was followed by the largest sovereign default in history, an independent evaluation office within the IMF authored a 193-page report pointing to where it may have gone wrong.

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But this plan falls short of requiring a fixed exchange rate, a factor the IMF said played “the central role” in turning Argentina into a crisis country. Trading one-to-one with the dollar, it provided stability for awhile but left policymakers powerless once investor confidence faltered.

Alberto Fernandez, who served as cabinet chief to former President Néstor Kirchner, criticized current President Mauricio Macri on Twitter in May when the IMF announced plans to aid Argentina again. “The only idea that came to Macri is to resort to the lender of last resort,” he wrote. “That is the IMF. What a way to smash an economy.”

‘It’s about the politics’

Fiona Mackie, regional director for Latin America at The Economist Intelligence Unit, said the new deal offers a better plan to attack inflation and normalize the economy. But she said political uncertainty could cause turmoil in the country.

“The government should be better able to steer policy through a difficult few months and succeed in its adjustment package,” she said. “All that said, risks abound, and at this point it’s about the politics, and the political capacity to keep the moderate opposition, and voters at large, on side.”

Sticking to IMF targets may prove difficult for Macri, a conservative whose campaign focused on free-market reforms, as the October 2019 presidential election approach. With an approval rating that his dipped below 40% this year, he could risk losing re-election.



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Public officers above 58 years and with pre-existing conditions told to work from home: The Standard

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Head of Public Service Joseph Kinyua. [File, Standard]
In a document from Head of Public Service, Joseph Kinyua new measure have been outlined to curb the bulging spread of covid-19. Public officers with underlying health conditions and those who are over 58 years -a group that experts have classified as most vulnerable to the virus will be required to execute their duties from home.

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However, the new rule excluded personnel in the security sector and other critical and essential services.
“All State and public officers with pre-existing medical conditions and/or aged 58 years and above serving in CSG5 (job group ‘S’) and below or their equivalents should forthwith work from home,” read the document,” read the document.
To ensure that those working from home deliver, the Public Service directs that there be clear assignments and targets tasked for the period designated and a clear reporting line to monitor and review work done.
SEE ALSO: Thinking inside the cardboard box for post-lockdown work stations
Others measures outlined in the document include the provision of personal protective equipment to staff, provision of sanitizers and access to washing facilities fitted with soap and water, temperature checks for all staff and clients entering public offices regular fumigation of office premises and vehicles and minimizing of visitors except by prior appointments.
Officers who contract the virus and come back to work after quarantine or isolation period will be required to follow specific directives such as obtaining clearance from the isolation facility certified by the designated persons indicating that the public officer is free and safe from Covid-19. The officer will also be required to stay away from duty station for a period of seven days after the date of medical certification.
“The period a public officer spends in quarantine or isolation due to Covid-19, shall be treated as sick leave and shall be subject to the Provisions of the Human Resource Policy and procedures Manual for the Public Service(May,2016),” read the document.
The service has also made discrimination and stigmatization an offence and has guaranteed those affected with the virus to receive adequate access to mental health and psychosocial supported offered by the government.
The new directives targeting the Public Services come at a time when Kenyans have increasingly shown lack of strict observance of the issued guidelines even as the number of positive Covid-19 cases skyrocket to 13,771 and leaving 238 dead as of today.
SEE ALSO: Working from home could be blessing in disguise for persons with disabilities
Principal Secretaries/ Accounting Officers will be personally responsible for effective enforcement and compliance of the current guidelines and any future directives issued to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.

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Uhuru convenes summit to review rising Covid-19 cases: The Standard

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President Uhuru Kenyatta (pictured) will on Friday, July 24, meet governors following the ballooning Covid-19 infections in recent days.
The session will among other things review the efficacy of the containment measures in place and review the impact of the phased easing of the restrictions, State House said in a statement.
This story is being updated.
SEE ALSO: Sakaja resigns from Covid-19 Senate committee, in court tomorrow

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Drastic life changes affecting mental health

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Kenya has been ranked 6th among African countries with the highest cases of depression, this has triggered anxiety by the World Health Organization (WHO), with 1.9 million people suffering from a form of mental conditions such as depression, substance abuse.

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Globally, one in four people is affected by mental or neurological disorders at some point in their lives, this is according to the WHO.

Currently, around 450 million people suffer from such conditions, placing mental disorders among the leading causes of ill-health and disability worldwide.

The pandemic has also been known to cause significant distress, mostly affecting the state of one’s mental well-being.

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With the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic attributed to the novel Coronavirus disease, millions have been affected globally with over 14 million infections and half a million deaths as to date. This has brought about uncertainty coupled with difficult situations, including job loss and the risk of contracting the deadly virus.

In Kenya the first Coronavirus case was reported in Nairobi by the Ministry of Health on the 12th March 2020.  It was not until the government put in place precautionary measures including a curfew and lockdown (the latter having being lifted) due to an increase in the number of infections that people began feeling its effect both economically and socially.

A study by Dr. Habil Otanga,  a Lecturer at the University of Nairobi, Department of Psychology says  that such measures can in turn lead to surge in mental related illnesses including depression, feelings of confusion, anger and fear, and even substance abuse. It also brings with it a sense of boredom, loneliness, anger, isolation and frustration. In the post-quarantine/isolation period, loss of employment due to the depressed economy and the stigma around the disease are also likely to lead to mental health problems.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) states that at least 300,000 Kenyans have lost their jobs due to the Coronavirus pandemic between the period of January and March this year.

KNBC noted that the number of employed Kenyans plunged to 17.8 million as of March from 18.1 million people as compared to last year in December. The Report states that the unemployment rate in Kenya stands at 13.7 per cent as of March this year while it stood 12.4 per cent in December 2019.

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Mama T (not her real name) is among millions of Kenyans who have been affected by containment measures put in place to curb the spread of the virus, either by losing their source of income or having to work under tough guidelines put in place by the MOH.

As young mother and an event organizer, she has found it hard to explain to her children why they cannot go to school or socialize freely with their peers as before.

“Sometimes it gets difficult as they do not understand what is happening due to their age, this at times becomes hard on me as they often think I am punishing them,”

Her contract was put on hold as no event or public gatherings can take place due to the pandemic. This has brought other challenges along with it, as she has to find means of fending for her family expenditures that including rent and food.

“I often wake up in the middle of the night with worries about my next move as the pandemic does not exhibit any signs of easing up,” she says. She adds that she has been forced to sort for manual jobs to keep her family afloat.

Ms. Mary Wahome, a Counseling Psychologist and Programs Director at ‘The Reason to Hope,’ in Karen, Nairobi says that such kind of drastic life changes have an adverse effect on one’s mental status including their family members and if not addressed early can lead to depression among other issues.

“We have had cases of people indulging in substance abuse to deal with the uncertainty and stress brought about by the pandemic, this in turn leads to dependence and also domestic abuse,”

Sam Njoroge , a waiter at a local hotel in Kiambu, has found himself indulging in substance abuse due to challenges he is facing after the hotel he was working in was closed down as it has not yet met the standards required by the MOH to open.

“My day starts at 6am where I go to a local pub, here I can get a drink for as little as Sh30, It makes me suppress the frustration I feel.” he says.

Sam is among the many who have found themselves in the same predicament and resulted to substance abuse finding ways to beat strict measures put in place by the government on the sale of alcohol so as to cope.

Mary says, situations like Sam’s are dangerous and if not addressed early can lead to serious complications, including addiction and dependency, violent behavior and also early death due to health complications.

She has, however, lauded the government for encouraging mental wellness and also launching the Psychological First Aid (PFA) guide in the wake of the virus putting emphasis on the three action principal of look, listen and link. “When we follow this it will be easy to identify an individual in distress and also offer assistance”.

Mary has urged anyone feeling the weight of the virus taking a toll on them not to hesitate but look for someone to talk to.

“You should not only seek help from a specialist but also talk to a friend, let them know what you are undergoing and how you feel, this will help ease their emotional stress and also find ways of dealing with the situation they are facing,” She added

Mary continued to stress on the need to perform frequent body exercises as a form of stress relief, reading and also taking advantage of this unfortunate COVID-19 period to engage in hobbies and talent development.

“Let people take this as an opportunity to kip fit, get in touch with one’s inner self and  also engage in   reading that would  help expand their knowledge.

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